In defence of Keir Starmer

Despite his flaws, this newsletter believes that he should remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

In the 2024 general election campaign, the Labour Party promised change after 14 years of ‘incompetent’ Conservative rule. After two years in office, it mostly failed to deliver. The British economy is stagnating and, to make matters worse, it is projected to recover more slowly and with greater difficulty than peers from the Iran war. Public services are suffering, with another strike by junior doctors carried out these very days. The government is also struggling to deal with immigration, a key priority of the electorate, according to most opinion polls. Politically, Labour is losing voters to both the far-right party Reform UK and to the left-leaning Green Party. The next local elections in England, scheduled for May 7th, are projected to be a disaster for the party and the government. Even worse, Labour risks losing Wales to the pro-independence Plaid Cymru after more than a century of near domination in Welsh politics.

Photo by Chris Lawton on Unsplash

Many voters and, more importantly, Labour MPs, concede that Sir Keir Starmer might not survive much longer in Downing Street, even though he was elected on a landslide barely two years ago. Change at the top might be the only way to change the country and deliver on the manifesto promises, or so the argument runs.

It is tempting to see matters in this light, but it is probably also wrong. There are at least three reasons why this publication believes that Sir Keir deserves a second chance.

On domestic policy, a new leader would inherit the same problems faced by Mr Starmer, as well as the same policy constraints. Although the leadership style matters, a new prime minister would not necessarily be able to turn the country, and Labour’s position in the polls, around in a matter of months. The energy crisis, the cost of living and the NHS will haunt an eventual successor as much as Sir Keir. After all, the Conservative Party had 3 leaders in as many months in 2022, but defeat came regardless in 2024. If anything, the changes at the top made matters worse.

Moreover, even though the economy and immigration dominate voters’ priorities, it is foreign policy that is likely to dominate the political agenda in the next few months. From Ukraine to Iran, turbulent times demand strong leadership, which Keir Starmer has provided. Repeatedly blasted by an increasingly unchained Donald Trump, the Prime Minister has stood firm and has acted in the national interest, even refusing the use of British military bases to the greatest ally the United Kingdom has ever had. He has also hinted at a big reorientation of UK foreign policy towards Europe and especially the European Union, the logical step for a country that now regrets having left the EU six years ago, according to opinion polls. Although the so-called ‘reset’ of relations with Brussels has not (yet?) been exploited to its full potential and more can be done, as this newsletter advocated in the past (see below), Sir Keir deserves credit for raising the issue, still taboo in British politics after years of Brexit orthodoxy.

Finally, as Mr Trump suggested that Sir Keir is no Winston Churchill, neither is any of his potential successors. Moreover, contrary to the Prime Minister, they have not the experience of leading a G7 country in turbulent times. Leaders of UK allies in Europe and Asia will not welcome a change in a country whose next leader would be the fifth of the decade, especially not when the world is on the brink.

The promised change is yet to materialise for an understandably frustrated British electorate. But stability is sorely needed these days, and nobody can be better at providing it than the incumbent Prime Minister, who deserves a second chance. Despite the US President’s suggestion, Sir Keir is no Neville Chamberlain, and there is no Winston Churchill ready to succeed him.